At least, we can’t deny that History appears to be repeating itself (something History likes to do). On one side, Eastern European countries that were doing well a few years ago, are now totally broke, but Europe doesn’t want to bail them out, and won’t , as reported in the New York Times yesterday.

Also, Japan is contracting at 13 percent Last quarter and the United Ststes contracted at 6 percent last quarter.

What’s ahead? If history is any guide, nothing much good. I don’t want to say it, but it started with hyperinflation in the late 1920’s.

I saw Barack Obama being sworn in as the 44th President of the United States today on Facebook/CNN, with all my Facebook friends – and that was pretty interesting.

According to TechCrunch – Facebook’s Big Day: 1.5 Million Obama-Related Status Updates Via CNN

It may be Obama Day today, but it was definitely also Facebook Day – the company had its Facebook Connect service integrated nicely into the live CNN.com coverage of the inauguration. Facebook users could log into Facebook while watching the event, read comments from friends (or anyone) and leave their own.

I think the future of Social Neworking may well be in carrying your social network to almost any event you see online or any event your attending.   I connected to a few of my Facebook friends in the context of a live event that was happening – felt in some ways as if the Facebook Connect proxy was shorthand for speaking directly – and it may be, that in my mind’s eye, I was conduction a real time conversation with friends.

At least, I remember it that way, the substance of the conversations, that is.

Well .. how about The Economy ….. according to Paul Krugman – in a post  – A scary analogy likens the proposed simulus package as too weak to get us up the hill:

“…If you don’t have enough momentum from the start and fail to provide enough “stimulus” to get the car over the crest of the hill, you can slide all the way back to the bottom, crashing into things along the way and ending up worse off than when you started.”

I agree  – but I would add this point – it may be that Obama’s Economic team wants to apply a less than perfect stimulus just to see how effective it is and then add another stimulus package later (say in 9 months to a year).

I can see it both ways – on one hand – committing so much money (say – 2 Trillion Dollars) without really having a grip on how the Stimulus is going to work (by seeing it in action) leaves you less room later to manipulate or correct mistakes in the original legislation.

On the other hand, by going for a weaker than needed stimulus package now – Obama risks not having the buyin he needs to get it approved later – if things go really, really bad ..and, as Krugman points out – Republicans and Conseratives will be all over Obama, if his program doesn’t deliver.

Daily Kos has an analysis of Obama’s Stimulus package here – Examining the stimulus package.

Therefore, on the face of it – while Obama’s plan is bold, it might be better were it even BOLDER.

Here, read this:

“… Critics of a bailout note, rightly, that bankruptcy isn’t simply about giving distressed companies financial protection to get through rough patches. It’s also about letting the free market do its work–about forcing inefficient companies to reorganize or, failing that, to make way for others. If the government spares Detroit from failure, the government might end up supporting obsolete companies while rewarding both management and labor for their oafish behavior.”

I’ve noticed, sometimes, that any idea, any argument, notion, can be used to support multiple outcomes – for example, the Auto Industry could easily deserve to fail – and if you use two dimentional thinking – that’s the conclusion you’d come to.

On the other hand, when taking that argument about the Free Market and Automakers deserving to fail with the other things that will now happen as they fail – an entirely different picture is painted .. like this one:

“… Restaurants, gas stations, hospitals, and then cities, counties, and states–all of them would feel pressure on their bottom lines. A study just published by the Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research (CAR) predicted that three million people would lose their jobs in the first year after such a Big Three meltdown, swelling the ranks of the unemployed by nearly one-third nationally and leading to hundreds of billions of dollars in lost income. The Midwest would feel the effects disproportionately, but the effect would reach into every community with a parts supplier or factory–and, to a lesser extent, into every town and city with a dealership. In short, virtually every community in the country would be touched.”

Now, bear in mind, 3 million people out of work in the next year, additional to the 6.5% unemployment rate we have now would put us above 8.5% unemployment, maybe a bit more since a lot of other industries are hurting, not to mention city and state goverments.

That’s why I’m of the belief that rational, sound thought, comes out of an chain of ideas, not slavishly holding to any one of them.

It’s also being said that we ought to be going shopping now, instead of saving money – yep, in this Bizzaro world, everything is reversed, according to THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Go shopping.

Obama can’t wait until Jan. 20 to weigh in on this. If we don’t stimulate the global economy fast enough and big enough, some of Obama’s inaugural balls might be held in soup kitchens.

When President Bush told us to go shopping after 9/11, he was right. We needed to stimulate the economy then. The problem was that the Bush economic team never turned off the green light and told people to “go saving.” So with easy credit seemingly endlessly available, American consumers saved virtually nothing and bid up housing prices to record levels. Retailers expanded stores and China expanded factories to accommodate all the shopping. It was quite a party. We had banks in America giving mortgages to people whose only qualification “was that they could fog up a knife,” one mortgage broker told me.”

In this situation we find ourselves, we have to think out of the box – sometimes, that’s difficult to do, but that’s why we’re getting rid of the old crop of leaders, because they were not able to.

And let’s face it, didn’t the Republican’s get elected based on appealing to primitive emotions and the Reptilian Brain?   If you don’t believe me, read this old post of mine Power of Pervasive Subliminal Advertising and bear in mind that one of the problems with the Reptilian Brain is that it can not process complex emotions and situations – which is why it clings to only one idea at a time or strings together ideas that don’t really belong together, as John McCain’s campaign did.

Today, using a modern mind, fully in touch with reality, you’ve got to look past taking a single point of view.  Ask yourself if saving 3 million jobs isn’t better than the alternatives we’re presented with.

And let’s not even get into why we’re in the situation which the collapsing World Economy – we’ll have enough time to remember the “good old days” for the next couple of years, while world from sinking into a Global Depression.

“….An unspoken theme I saw through the three days here was control: those who had it losing it and not knowing what to do, not understanding that — according to Jarvis’ First Law — today, when you give up control, you win. That, to me, is the fundamental change occurring here. I am in the midst of those who control and they must learn, according to David Weinberger’s Corolary, that there is an inverse relationship between control and trust.”

I have to admit, giving up control, transparency, is hard, both in Local, National, International politics and policy, and even in our individual lives – I know that I have the same issues, personally – but wrote very obliquely about it in Rainy Cloudy Sketches in Art New York City today – and sometimes, I’ve had a problem understanding what rules to apply, where.

Here’s also, Jeff Jarvis’s view from Dubai from his hotel room, a few days ago, just a thought, to add “local color” .

Anyway, a lot has been said about John McCain’s (forked) tongue, and some pretty funny photos and animations are at http://blog.wfmu.org/freeform/2008/photoshop-conte.HTML

Btw, got the tip about McCain’s Tongue from Boing Boing.

So…. now Karl Rove has made a prediction – is that, more or less, it?